{"id":228,"date":"2024-06-02T07:30:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-02T00:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/?p=228"},"modified":"2024-05-31T12:37:38","modified_gmt":"2024-05-31T05:37:38","slug":"cash-flow-dong-tien-bds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/2024\/06\/02\/cash-flow-dong-tien-bds\/","title":{"rendered":"Cash Flow ( D\u00f2ng Ti\u1ec1n BDS )"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft r\u1ea5t hay v\u1ec1 Cash floow d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n bds<\/strong> m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n chia s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi, \u0111\u1ecdc h\u1ebft b\u00e0i n\u00e0y ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 Cash floow(d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n)<\/strong>, h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1ea1n trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 kinh doanh.<\/p>\n

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Nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o\u00a0Nguy\u1ec5n V\u1ea1n Ph\u00fa<\/a>\u00a0c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn. T\u00f4i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi b\u00e1c Ph\u00fa v\u1ec1 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a cash flow (d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n) khi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n n\u00f3i ri\u00eang v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf\/kinh doanh n\u00f3i chung (b\u1ea1n n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ecdc blog n\u00e0y l\u00e2u ch\u1eafc nh\u1edb t\u00f4i nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn cash flow kh\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u). Trong b\u00e0i n\u00e0y t\u00f4i s\u1ebd n\u00f3i r\u00f5 th\u00eam v\u1ec1 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m cash flow v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 n\u00eau ra c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S m\u00e0\u00a0b\u00e1o ch\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0\u0111\u01b0a tin<\/a>\u00a0m\u1ea5y ng\u00e0y qua.<\/h3>\n

Trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 2 kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m cash flow<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t operating cash flow (OCF)<\/strong><\/em> li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p. \u0110\u00e2y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o ra t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p B\u0110S s\u1ebd c\u00f3 OCF \u1edf m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 k\u1ebf to\u00e1n l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb b\u00e1n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m B\u0110S c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh tr\u1eeb \u0111i chi ph\u00ed x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, marketing, m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi… M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qui \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ebf to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u1eadp b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c OCF, theo qu\u00ed ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed theo n\u0103m, c\u00e1c CFO g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i OCF “in real time”, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed h\u00e0ng gi\u1edd, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 cash trong t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 trang tr\u1ea3i cho nh\u1eefng liability \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ea1n. Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m OCF n\u00e0y \u00edt ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 quan h\u1ec7 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ee9c kho\u1ebb v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i kh\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1ed1t n\u1ebfu OCF kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1t. Tuy nhi\u00ean OCF l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p, n\u1ebfu OCF \u00e2m v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00f4ng vay n\u1ee3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp, nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd b\u1ecb r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng default (kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ee3) v\u00e0 do v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb ki\u1ec7n r\u1ed3i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n. Nh\u01b0 b\u00e1c Ph\u00fa \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra, m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p\/d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n v\u00ec OCF kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Nh\u1eefng doanh nghi\u1ec7p b\u1ecb r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t thanh kho\u1ea3n.<\/p>\n

Kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m cash flow th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 economic cash flow (ECF)<\/em><\/strong> th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1edbi analyst quan t\u00e2m, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh IRR cho m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n hay trong valuation cho m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. ECF th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh theo n\u0103m v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta kh\u00f4ng quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn OCF v\u00e0 t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p (ng\u1ea7m gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 thanh kho\u1ea3n trong to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu k\u1ef3 k\u1ebf to\u00e1n). ECF ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ho\u1eb7c doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 sinh l\u00e3i hay kh\u00f4ng ho\u1eb7c gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 qu\u00e1 \u0111\u1eaft hay qu\u00e1 r\u1ebb hay kh\u00f4ng. V\u00ec l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u00ean ECF c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh tu\u1ef3 theo thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh doanh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o. M\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1edbi ECF c\u0169 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1eddi (IRR l\u1edbn h\u01a1n cost of capital) nh\u01b0ng khi ECF ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i khi c\u00f3 th\u00eam th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi th\u00ec d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng sinh l\u1ee3i n\u1eefa. L\u1ea5y v\u00ed d\u1ee5 m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u0110S ban \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 ECF t\u1eeb ti\u1ec1n b\u00e1n c\u0103n h\u1ed9 gi\u00e1 3 t\u1ef7 trong v\u00f2ng 2 n\u0103m, nay ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3m ECF xu\u1ed1ng v\u00ec gi\u00e1 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 2 t\u1ef7 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i gi\u00e3n th\u1eddi gian ra th\u00e0nh 3-5 n\u0103m, hi\u1ec3n nhi\u00ean IRR s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n s\u1ebd l\u1ed7 ngay c\u1ea3 n\u1ebfu m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i. C\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 ngay khi ECF x\u1ea5u \u0111i, OCF c\u0169ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00ec ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n vay ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f2n kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng ng\u1eebng mua v\u00ec b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n h\u1ecd c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ECF c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd x\u1ea5u \u0111i (i.e. gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1eefa).<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u0110S \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi ECF t\u1ec7 \u0111i v\u00e0 c\u1ea7m ch\u1eafc kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd l\u1ed7 nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf v\u1ed1n (t\u1ef1 c\u00f3 v\u00e0 vay c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng) v\u00e0o fixed costs (\u0111\u1ec1n b\u00f9, gi\u1ea3i to\u1ea3, san l\u1ea5p m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng…) th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd l\u00e0m g\u00ec? Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 h\u1ecd ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn l\u1ed7, gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m th\u1eadt m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 thu ti\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 nh\u1eb1m c\u1ee9u v\u00e3n OCF d\u00f9 ECF s\u1ebd t\u1ec7 \u0111i. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t cho x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00ec d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1eabn ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh, ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u1ed7 nh\u01b0ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00e0 v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb h\u01a1n (m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c wealth transfer t\u1eeb ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0u sang ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u00e8o kh\u00f4ng th\u00f4ng qua tax system). Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n hai l\u00e0 h\u1ecd hu\u1ef7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n, ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ea5t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i n\u1ed9p th\u00eam s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 cam k\u1ebft cho d\u1ef1 \u00e1n nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n. L\u00fac n\u00e0y ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 n\u1ee3 s\u1ebd n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f2n dang d\u1edf v\u00e0 tu\u1ef3 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 kh\u00e1c ho\u1eb7c s\u1ebd b\u1ecb hu\u1ef7 b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n ba l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c sang nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u1eb7c chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n ECF v\u00e0 c\u00f3 OCF kh\u1ea3 thi. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 h\u1ecd xoay s\u1edf t\u00ecm m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ngu\u1ed3n OCF t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec3 lay l\u1eaft d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, hi v\u1ecdng ECF s\u1ebd t\u1ed1t l\u00ean khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tan b\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u (ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap ECF b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y hay c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c). N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p nhau l\u1ea1i th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t interest group m\u1ea1nh th\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u0110S VN, c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ECF d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 cao, ngo\u00e0i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a \u0111a s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. Nh\u01b0 b\u00e0i c\u1ee7a b\u00e1c Ph\u00fa \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch, nh\u1eefng ECF \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 kh\u1ea3 thi khi bong b\u00f3ng B\u0110S c\u00f2n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00ecnh to, ai c\u0169ng tin gi\u00e1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea5t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng phi m\u00e3. M\u1ed9t khi ni\u1ec1m tin \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ECF ban \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p n\u1eefa v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ECF th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf h\u01a1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thua l\u1ed7. C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn ra \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 h\u1ecd si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t cho vay, g\u00e2y th\u00eam kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u1ec1 OCF cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p kinh doanh \u0111\u1ecba \u1ed1c d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng m\u1ea5t thanh kho\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Mai Linh m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p B\u0110S ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn ECF m\u1edbi v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7 (ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 l\u1eddi th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u), m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng c\u1ea7m c\u1ef1 d\u00f9 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n b\u1ecb b\u1ecf hoang, kh\u1ea3 nang sang nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p c\u00f2n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng n\u0103ng v\u1eeba kh\u00f3 v\u1eeba ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ECF \u0111\u1ee7 t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1eabn c\u00f3 l\u00e3i. Trong t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c interest group t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch lobby ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 \u0111o\u00e1n. V\u00e0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ecd \u0111ang th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Li\u00ean t\u1ee5c 2 ng\u00e0y 18-19\/12 th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nguy\u1ec5n T\u1ea5n D\u0169ng, th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Nguy\u1ec5n V\u0103n B\u00ecnh v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t quan ch\u1ee9c h\u1ecdp v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n\u00a0TPHCM<\/a>\u00a0r\u1ed3i\u00a0HN<\/a>\u00a0v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S. Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1\u00a0s\u1ebd b\u01a1m\u00a020000-40000<\/a>\u00a0t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c NHTM cho kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng vay mua nh\u00e0 v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 8% (v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng D\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o kho\u1ea3ng 4-5%), ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 NHNN s\u1ebd tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c NHTM x\u1eed l\u00fd kho\u1ea3ng\u00a0150-200 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7<\/a>\u00a0n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u m\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c B\u0110S. B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh s\u1ebd xem x\u00e9t\u00a0gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 gi\u00e3n thu\u1ebf<\/a>\u00a0cho c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u0110S, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd mua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m B\u0110S \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh nh\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c \u00f4ng ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang “\u00f4m h\u00e0ng”, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111ang ng\u1ed3i tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1ng n\u1ee3 B\u0110S s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t m\u1eebng khi nghe nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y. C\u1ea3 OCF l\u1eabn ECF c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd r\u00fat ch\u1ea1y kh\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 sai l\u1ea7m, b\u1ea7y \u0111\u00e0n trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch an to\u00e0n, c\u00f3 khi c\u00f2n c\u00f3 l\u00e3i.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 NHNN l\u1ea1i s\u1ed1t s\u1eafng gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S nh\u01b0 v\u1eady? Ngo\u00e0i l\u00fd do lobby m\u00e0 t\u00f4i tin l\u00e0 c\u00f3 d\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng ai n\u00f3i ra, nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 g\u00ec? Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft theo b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Hu\u1ec7 B\u0110S \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng k\u00e9o theo nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh kh\u00e1c trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7, vd v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng… Th\u1ee9 n\u1eefa th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng D\u0169ng lo ng\u1ea1i 70% t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a 200 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u l\u00e0 B\u0110S, do v\u1eady n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 B\u0110S s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e1t m\u00e3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ed1 B\u0110S th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ecbnh ban \u0111\u1ea7u, do v\u1eady s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7 l\u1edbn. C\u00e1i m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ch\u1ed3ng ch\u00e9o gi\u1eefa n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi vi\u1ec7n d\u1eabn, tuy nhi\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng ai n\u00f3i ra l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 sai l\u1ea7m khi nh\u1eadn th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p b\u1eb1ng B\u0110S v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean tr\u1eddi. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 cho sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, t\u1ea1i sao c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1?<\/p>\n

Trong l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Hu\u1ec7, v\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1eb7t ra l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u0110S c\u00f3 qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c c\u1ea3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf\u00a0ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\u00a0ph\u1ea3i nh\u1ea3y v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u hay kh\u00f4ng? S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 cho B\u0110S kho\u1ea3ng 200 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7, c\u1ee9 cho s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng 70% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 \u00e1n th\u00ec gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb B\u0110S \u1edf VN kho\u1ea3ng 285 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed v\u00f2ng \u0111\u1eddi trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u0110S kho\u1ea3ng 3 n\u0103m, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 revenue \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y kho\u1ea3ng 95 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7\/n\u0103m. C\u1ee9 gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 value-added cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i VN v\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a VN, 95 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 3.2% GDP (nominal GDP c\u1ee7a VN n\u0103m 2012 d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 2950 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7). N\u1ebfu so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01a1n 150% GDP hay gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, con s\u1ed1 3.2% GDP c\u1ee7a B\u0110S r\u1ea5t nh\u1ecf. T\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u nh\u01b0ng \u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o\u00e1n \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u0110S v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn, nh\u01b0ng l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1i h\u01a1n? V\u00ec B\u0110S l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay, gi\u00e1 B\u0110S s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng lung lay. Tho\u1ea1t nghe \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb c\u00f3 l\u00fd v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng cho gi\u00e1 B\u0110S s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 l\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u00fd. Tuy nhi\u00ean c\u1ea7n nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng khi cho vay v\u00e0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0o th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 mu\u1ed1n s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111em t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p \u0111i b\u00e1n. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng lu\u00f4n mu\u1ed1n kho\u1ea3n cho vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c con n\u1ee3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, sinh l\u1eddi v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 \u0111\u00fang h\u1ea1n. Trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ch\u1ec9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p khi kho\u1ea3n cho vay b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh non-performing loan, l\u00fac h\u1ecd b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng. Gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p c\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng teo t\u00f3p l\u1ea1i. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng trong n\u0103m 2012 v\u00ec t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong n\u0103m 2011 v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u00e0i \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng “back of the envelope”. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed 70% s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p l\u00e0 B\u0110S, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n ph\u1ea3i tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1ea5u tr\u1eeb 50% x 70% = 35% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb B\u0110S \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00fac cho vay (NHNN qui \u0111\u1ecbnh B\u0110S ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh 50% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb khi kh\u1ea5u tr\u1eeb tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng). Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady khi gi\u00e1 B\u0110S gi\u1ea3m 10%, ph\u1ea7n kh\u1ea5u tr\u1eeb tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 3.5% hay n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng t\u0103ng th\u00eam tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng b\u1eb1ng 3.5% t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng. T\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng VN v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3n 250 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7, c\u1ee9 cho l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng b\u1eb1ng 50%, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 125 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7, th\u00ec khi gi\u00e1 B\u0110S gi\u1ea3m 10% ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1ed7 125 x 3.5% = 4375 t\u1ef7. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u1edbn h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 B\u0110S gi\u1ea3m 20-30%, hay th\u1eadm ch\u00ed 50% nh\u01b0 trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 “paper loss”, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 B\u0110S t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i th\u00ec d\u00f9 kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u c\u00f3 x\u1ea5u th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111i n\u1eefa ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u1eabn reverse s\u1ed1 “paper loss” \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 ghi nh\u1eadn l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng tr\u00ean b\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. B\u1edfi v\u1eady gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng mong B\u0110S \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m g\u00ec gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n B\u0110S.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch trong entry Bad debt, nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n l\u1eddi l\u1ed7 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan g\u00ec \u0111\u1ebfn cash flow, \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 OCF, c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. B\u1edfi v\u1eady NHNN ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap thanh kho\u1ea3n cho c\u00e1c NHTM n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 B\u0110S s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng tr\u00edch l\u1eadp d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u0103m 2012 r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c NHTM d\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n thanh kho\u1ea3n. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c gia t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i foreign reserve, ngu\u1ed3n thanh kho\u1ea3n trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd qu\u00e1 d\u01b0 th\u1eeba n\u00ean NHNN \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i d\u00f9ng c\u1ea3 OMO l\u1eabn t\u00edn phi\u1ebfu NHNN \u0111\u1ec3 r\u00fat thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 h\u00f2ng ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu s\u1eafp t\u1edbi NHNN b\u01a1m ra 20-40 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 B\u0110S v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 6% nh\u01b0 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9a, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 8-9%\/n\u0103m, gi\u1edbi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn k\u00e9p (v\u1eeba t\u1eeb B\u0110S l\u00ean gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba t\u1eeb \u0103n ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2y b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S v\u00e0 x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho ai. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f2n lo r\u1eb1ng n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trong n\u0103m 2012, xin nh\u1edb r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n t\u1ef1 c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng VN (qu\u1ed1c doanh+t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n+n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i) l\u00e0\u00a0412 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7<\/a>. N\u1ebfu s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n 40 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S v\u00e0 200 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp m\u1edbi ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u00e0nh m\u1ea1nh th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n nay. Ngay c\u1ea3 trong Great Depression, s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 h\u01a1n 1\/3 s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t nh\u01b0ng t\u00f4i mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng tung s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu\u1ebf c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u B\u0110S l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft v\u00e0 k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n

Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p m\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 v\u1eabn k\u00eau g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 c\u1ee9 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 B\u0110S gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ebfp, c\u1ee9 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7. Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u n\u00f3i tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n (recapitalization) cho c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng sau khi bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i write off \u0111i ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn s\u1ed1 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u t\u1ed3n \u0111\u1ecdng. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh partial nationalization h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t cam k\u1ebft ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i c\u1ed5 ph\u1ea7n ho\u00e1 (re-privatization) khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i. H\u00e3y \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c “\u0111\u1ea1i gia” B\u0110S v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 cho sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, h\u00e3y \u0111\u1ec3 cho nh\u1eefng “nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u1ed1c” h\u1ecdc b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng VN c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u0110S affordable h\u01a1n, \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u policy makers ph\u1ea3i h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft r\u1ea5t hay v\u1ec1 Cash floow d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n bds m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[55,56],"class_list":["post-228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-cash-flow","tag-cash-flow-dong-tien-bds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=228"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":231,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/228\/revisions\/231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dautuchungkhoan.click\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}